Might win Trump 1
Donald Trump's behavior is in no way irrational. At first glance, it may seem undemocratic that the president does not recognize the bare numbers of the vote. But given the president's terrier mentality, it's easy to see what movie is playing right in front of his eyes. Donald Trump will not win the election by votes - but he can usurp it with tricks of the process.
The interregnum between election day in the US and the day the new president is sworn in is 79 days. Important dates fall during this period, such as "the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December" when the electorate of the Electoral College to cast their votes across the country to elect the president. This year it's December 14th.
Before that, the election calendar already knows safe harbor day, which falls on the 36th day after the election date - that is, December 8th. The electoral law allows counting within this period. So by that day, the votes must have the safe haven achieved. Then the states have to certify the result and designate their electorate. But that also means: After December 8th, no port is safe any more.
Contrary to what it looks like, the President is not sitting in the White House firing uncontrolled tweets. No, Trump is pursuing the strategy of a man who will not get enough votes and now wants to fight for victory in another way. The US Constitution and electoral laws give him the ability to do so.
In the first step, Trump discredits the election result, reports legal doubts and subjects the procedure to his timing. This has been happening for months: the resources for the count were thinned, the postal voting procedure was in doubt or hampered, the arguments against a lengthy count repeated. All of this increases the scope for possible lawsuits and contestation procedures. Recounts of the results in entire states are particularly lengthy - sensitive proceedings that can be accompanied with a lot of noise and moved into the gray area of illegality.
The more proceedings are initiated, the higher the chance that the states will not be able to establish an official result and thus not be able to certify their election results on December 8th as planned and nominate the electorate.
But then a political game begins, or to put it with the appropriate severity: war. The electorate is actually sent by the victorious party, but there has been a Supreme Court ruling since the 2000 Bush v Gore election conflict, according to which the states can take this right for themselves. The congresses or the governors are eligible for this act of empowerment. The parliaments in the controversial states of Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin are all dominated by the Republicans, with at least some of the governments.
If this gateway through the states is blocked, and if an electoral body does not come about at all, then the legal dispute goes into the third round. Then in Washington the House of Representatives will elect the president. Although the Democrats have a majority there, the legal basis for this emergency procedure is more than vague and opens the last, but particularly promising, path to the Supreme Court.
All of these procedural steps open up new options for Trump to hold on to his office. The Democrats' best chance is now to win as many states as possible by majority vote and thus protect themselves against one or the other attempt at contestation. Trump will not be able to paralyze all blue states. Perhaps some of them do.
Trump's biography and understanding of office leave no doubt that the man will work with all the dirty tricks. America must prepare for a long winter of uncertainty, in which the president and his gun tensioners want to stir up large parts of the country in order to create a climate of chaos and lack of leadership.
This is the strategy Joe Biden and the right-wing majority in the United States must prepare for. It would be helpful if the Republicans in Congress broke their telling silence and also pointed out the power of majority to Trump. Because the fate of this democracy is now being decided. Otherwise threatens bedlam - the madhouse that Trump has already announced.
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